Since I work with caterers on recipe costing and menu planning models, I see many different approaches to forecasting food production. Most chefs like to vary the portion sizes based on the number of menu items selected.
There are plenty of theories on consumption profiles. For example, I know one client who estimates the adult female portion equals 70% of the adult male portion. I have witnessed above average food consumption by heavy construction workers and below average consumption by office staff.
There are many exceptions to every rule. Forecasting is part art and part science.
I like to predict the average expected weight consumed per guest. Once I have this estimate, I like to focus on the main course. After determining the size (in ounces) of the main course entree, I simply subtract the ounces from my total. The net figure is used to estimate food production of all other items.
To illustrate the technique, I'll defer to a well accepted source for the average total consumption number. According to studies quoted in Wenzel's Menu Maker, "the human stomach holds 40 ounces comfortably..." Wenzel uses this limit when developing a portion control model. As a base, we'll start with the 40 ounce assumption. That's 2.5 pounds of food.
If our guests ordered a 12 ounce boneless sirloin steak for their entree, we'd have another 28 ounces to serve. We could serve a 6 ounce portion of pureed vegetable soup, 5-one ounce appetizers, and a 4 ounce salad with 1 ounce of dressing. We're down to 12 ounces. We could serve a 3 ounce starch portion and a 3 ounce vegetable portion. Finally, our baker can deliver the final 6 ounces with assorted rolls, butter and our dessert course.
As you increase the number of appetizer options, you should reduce the soup and salad portion sizes. The key to success is the estimate of total weight per guest less the weight of the center of the plate main entree.
My clients use estimates for rolls and butter. I have seen anywhere from 1 to 2 rolls with 1.5 the most common. Most go with a smaller roll and let guests choose either one or two.
Once you get a feel for the planning phase, you'll want to track actual consumption at each banquet. You will find out exactly how many rolls, appetizers, salads, soups, and desserts were consumed. Keep records and adjust your model to fit your patrons.
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2 comments:
Good thoughts. Also to consider is the timing of the event. An early dinner finds your guests not quite as hungry. A later event has your guests hoovering the hors d and dinner.
One needs to consider such factors as age,sex and climate condition also. The consumption of food during winter is higher than summer and again the quantity of food consumed depends on the mood and how tasty the prepartion is.
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